After the referendum: What’s next for Venezuela?

After the referendum: What’s next for Venezuela?

By Nicole M. Ferrand.*

Unfortunately, last Sunday’s February 15th Venezuelan referendum passed 54% to 46%, ending term limits for President Hugo Chávez and other elected officials. Even though the results are not surprising since the polls predicted this outcome, the response of the international community and the electoral observers was shocking; they unanimously said that even though some irregularities did occur, the referendum was ‘fully democratic,’ basically legitimizing Chavez’s outrageous power grab.

Not by any means were these regular elections. Venezuelans were subjected to a brutal campaign as the government threw all the power of the State behind Chavez. There was open political activity in public buildings and state employees had to donate one day’s paycheck to the campaign and attend electoral activities during working hours. The entire Venezuelan nation was blackmailed by Chavez as he threatened civil unrest if he didn’t win the referendum.

Opposing journalists and media outlets, that have been targets throughout Chavez’s presidency, were viciously attacked prior to February 15th and the few international observers who dared to question the regime’s methods were expelled from Venezuela. The news outlets that reported irregularities were threatened as Chavez himself sent the army to destroy opposition media buildings and physically attack newsmen and women. Some independents were even kidnapped and there were assassination attempts against anyone who became a threat to Chavez.

The opposition did all it could but in the end the vast amount of resources Chavez had at his disposal were impossible to counteract. In addition, they could not unite and stand behind a figure who could challenge Chavez directly. This remains a problem for the opposition. The students who spearheaded the opposition and had mobilized since the referendum was announced were constantly intimidated and harassed and its leaders assaulted. Chavez went as far as demanding that police “throw tear gas, and of the strong kind” at any student demonstration.

The referendum was never free and fair. The media covered Chavez 100 to 1 and overall the process was the most outrageously unequal and abusive ever. Venezuela is not democratic and has not been since Chavez decided to turn it into a dictatorship. He has used the state’s resources to stay in power and has worked to build an apparatus that ensures his victory in whatever election if he should decide to hold.

Chavez rushed the vote on the referendum because he was well aware that with falling oil prices he could not longer continue funding the ‘social programs” and governmental handouts that made him so popular. He knew that sooner rather than later he would lose support because he would have to make unpopular decisions due to Venezuela’s financial crisis. To silence any current or future critics his repressive methods will increase. In order to increase state revenues a takeover of the private sector will most likely accelerate, irreversibly damaging Venezuela’s economy for decades to come.

Analysts have been extremely worried about freedom of expression in Venezuela and after Sunday’s elections, things will definitely worsen. The opposition media which has been targeted all along will face huge obstacles and the opinions and news information will have to toe the government’s line if they want to continue operating.

During the period prior to the referendum, the tactics of fear, lies and blackmail were used openly and widely. Sadly, they worked. It is likely that many Venezuelans who have the means will now go into exile and those who don’t have that option will continue to live in tyranny. What is worse, Chavez’s victory means that Iran will continue to expand its operations in the region, thereby creating a very dangerous and ominous situation.

We have to do everything we can to continue informing and spreading the word on what’s happening inside Venezuela because this is not only about the future of that country; it is also about the future of Latin America and the national security of the United States.

*Nicole M. Ferrand is a research analyst and editor of "The Americas Report" of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project. She is a graduate of Columbia University in Economics and Political Science with a background in Law from Peruvian University, UNIFE and in Corporate Finance from Georgetown University.

The Menges Hemispheric Security Project

Venezuela News Brief: VENEZUELA SPEAK OUT I

Two weeks prior to the December 2nd, 2007 Referendum, the staff at the Americas Report published English/Spanish news briefs covering the events inside Venezuela. We will do the same prior to the February 15th Referendum as a way of showing our respect for and support of the Venezuelan opposition. It is hoped that once again the Venezuelan people will vote to contain Mr. Chavez’s ambitions and defeat an ever growing tyranny.

The Venezuelan people are being called upon once again to vote to perpetuate Mr. Chavez in power, indefinitely. The Venezuelan president has scheduled his referendum for February 15th, a little less than two weeks from today. Since Chavez didn’t obtain the desired results in the December 2, 2007 referendum, he is imposing another electoral exercise on his people, hoping this time they will give him the answer he wants. But conditions have worsened inside Venezuela, both economically, in terms of inflation and scarcity of consumer goods and socially in terms of an increase in crime and a decrease in civil liberties. If anything, Chavez is losing popularity even among his core constituency. So what reasons would Venezuelans have now to give Mr. Chavez even more power over the government and thus over their lives?

Hopefully all eligible Venezuelans will vote in spite of intimidation tactics being used by Mr. Chavez and his gangs and hopefully he will be prevented from “cooking” the results. This election could be a turning point for the Venezuelan people whose lives could be made much more difficult if Chavez wins and further consolidates his power. Mr. Chavez’s actions over the last ten years are indicative of a leader whose intense hatred of the United States overrides whatever considerations he might otherwise have had for the well being of the Venezuelan people. In this regard the Venezuelan people are only a tool to be used in his efforts to damage and undermine the “enemy.”

In order to assist in accomplishing his goals, the Venezuelan President has formed and strengthened his alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran whose operatives he will use to further his revolution and to impose his will. If Chavez is victorious on February 15th, it is likely he will tighten his grip on power by squashing all dissent, imprisoning members of the opposition, further limiting private enterprise and creating more effectives ways of spying on his people. The Venezuelan people must muster the courage and once again speak out and save themselves from an ever more bleak future and must do this themselves because there is no one else to rely on.

January 2, 2009

Hundreds rally opposite Venezuelan consulate – JTA.
Hundreds rallied in front of the Venezuelan consulate in New York following the vandalizing of a Caracas synagogue. The rally, organized on short notice Monday afternoon, expressed solidarity with the Venezuelan Jewish community and accused the country's president, Hugo Chavez, of fomenting an anti-Jewish atmosphere in which such anti-Semitic violence was inevitable. Demonstrators called on the Chavez government to bring the perpetrators of the attack to justice. Chavez has condemned the attack.
“We hold you accountable,” veteran activist Rabbi Avi Weiss told the crowd as footage of Chavez delivering a speech played behind him on a video screen behind the consulate window. The rally was responding to an attack over the weekend on the Mariperez Synagogue in the Venezuelan capital. According to reports, 15 armed men overpowered a security guard before desecrating religious objects, painting threatening messages on the walls and stealing community information. At the rally, local political figures and Jewish communal officials led the crowd in chanting “Never Again” and its Spanish translation, “Nunca Jamás.” Manuel Kohn, a Venezuelan Jew who has lived in the United States for nearly 50 years, addressed the protesters, describing his native country's history of hospitality to Jews and other minorities. “God bless you all, God bless Venezuela, and never again,” Kohn said. David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee, sounded an ominous warning in noting the theft of administrative information about the local Jewish community. “Historically,” Harris told JTA, “that has never ended well.”
http://jta.org/news/article/2009/02/03/1002728/hundreds-rally-opposite-venezuelan-consulate

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Nancy Menges
Editor in Chief

Nicole M. Ferrand
Editor

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*****

Venezuela Habla I

Dos semanas antes del referéndum del 2 de Diciembre del 2007, el equipo del “Americas Report” publicó en Ingles y en castellano, noticias diarias acerca de los últimos acontecimientos en Venezuela. Ya que el Sr. Hugo Chávez sigue empeñado en ser Presidente de por vida y ha elegido el 15 de Febrero para el referéndum, decidimos hacer lo mismo en muestra de apoyo a la oposición Venezolana. Esperamos, una vez más, que el pueblo de Venezuela logre frenar las ambiciones de Chávez.

Los venezolanos han sido una vez mas llamados a las urnas a votar y así ayudar a perpetuar a Chávez en el poder indefinidamente. Como no salió victorioso en el 2007, ahora vuelve a llamar a la población a ver si esta vez le dan el resultado que él quiere. Pero las condiciones en Venezuela han empeorado. La inflación ha aumentado, hay escasez de productos alimenticios, una alta criminalidad y menos libertades. Es más, las cosas están tan mal que Chávez está perdiendo popularidad dentro de su propio partido. ¿Qué razones podrían tener los venezolanos para darle más poder a Chávez sobre el gobierno y sobre sus propias vidas?

Ojalá que los electores acudan a las urnas, voten a pesar de ser intimidados por Chávez y su pandilla y así impidan que ocurra un masivo fraude. Esta elección puede ser el punto de quiebre para el pueblo venezolano cuyas vidas podrían ser aún mas difíciles si Chávez gana y se queda en el poder. Las acciones del presidente venezolano en el transcurso de diez años han demostrado que su odio hacia los Estados Unidos está por encima de cualquier consideración que pueda tener acerca del bienestar de su pueblo. En este sentido, los votantes son sólo herramientas a ser utilizadas por él en sus esfuerzos por dañar y destruir al “enemigo.”

Para lograr sus objetivos, el Presidente Venezolano ha fortalecido su alianza con la elite de la República Islámica de Irán a quien utilizará para promover su revolución e imponer su voluntad. Si Chávez gana el 15 de Febrero, lo más probable es que intensifique su poder, silenciando completamente a la oposición y hasta encarcelando a miembros de la oposición. El pueblo venezolano debe armarse de valor, una vez más expresar su rechazo y lograr salvar su futuro y lo deben hacer ellos mismos ya que no hay nadie que lo pueda hacer por ellos.

2 de Enero del 2009

Protestan frente al consulado de Venezuela en Nueva York por ataque a sinagoga – El Universal.
Más de 250 judíos, venezolanos y estadounidenses, preocupados por los derechos civiles se congregaron frente al Consulado de Venezuela este lunes protestar pacíficamente contra los ataques a la sinagoga el Maripérez, así como contra lo que consideran una campaña de antisemitismo en el país, instigados por el discurso violento en sectores oficiales. El evento fue organizado por voluntarios, y fue apoyado por diversas organizaciones, incluyendo el Anti-Defamation League, la junta de Relaciones Comunitarias Judías, el Comité Judío Americano, y el Centro Simón Wiesenthal. La protesta incluyó discursos de representantes de éstas organizaciones, y de otros oradores incluyendo a David Weprin, Presidente del Comité de Finanzas de la Ciudad de Nueva York, y Ross M. Wallenstein, Asistente del Gobernador Para Asuntos Comunitarios, Gobierno del Estado de Nueva York. La protesta, organizada en las últimas 48 horas, se realizó en respuesta a una agresión el viernes pasado en contra de la sinagoga más antigua de Venezuela. En un ataque bien orquestado, 15 hombres armados sometieron a dos guardias de seguridad y profanaron el templo, dañando objetos religiosos y pintando consignas en las paredes cargadas de epítetos raciales como "Muerte a Los Judíos", y "Judíos Fuera". "Los judíos han vivido en Venezuela por más de un siglo en el clima de paz, hermandad y tolerancia que Venezuela siempre ha exhibido, y durante las últimas semanas han sido víctimas de la politización del anti-semitismo. Esto no puede ser tolerado," dijo Daniel Benhayon, uno de los organizadores de la protesta. Como resultado de los eventos en Gaza, el gobierno Venezolano ha adoptado un tono agresivo y peligroso, incitando el odio y -con o sin intención- induciendo a sus seguidores a pintar swásticas en sinagogas, en plazas públicas y en universidades a través del país. El ataque del viernes no fue un incidente aislado. Varios líderes religiosos han sido amenazados y el colegio judío de Caracas fue allanado por el gobierno en el 2007 en busca de armas. Ninguna fue encontrada, informa la nota enviada por los organizadores del evento. En medios televisivos, radiales y de prensa escrita pertenecientes al gobierno se han emitido durante meses mensajes que explotan los estereotipos más denigrantes de vertientes antisemitas. Los oficiales gubernamentales no han hecho esfuerzo para detener la depredación, amansar el tono, o garantizar la seguridad de aquellos en peligro. "El gobierno venezolano tiene una oportunidad única en sus manos. Venezuela siempre ha sido un país de hermandad y tolerancia. Llevar a esos 15 hombres armados que no sólo profanaron una sinagoga, sino el nombre de todos los venezolanos sentará un precedente único de respeto a los derechos de todos los ciudadanos venezolanos, sin importar que credo profesen. Los judíos deben ser protegidos, como todos los ciudadanos," dijo Rubén Daniel Kliksberg, otro de los organizadores del Evento.
http://deportes.eluniversal.com/2009/02/02/pol_ava_protestan-frente-al_02A2213127.shtml

Nancy Menges
Directora

Nicole M. Ferrand
Editora

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Terrorists buying Latin American Passports to enter the US?

Terrorists buying Latin American Passports to enter the US?
By Nicole M. Ferrand.*

Last week, as part of our news stories we posted an article from “The San Antonio Express-News” about three Afghani Muslim men caught carrying stolen Mexican passports with their pictures and data while en route to Europe. It was revealed by authorities that the documents were genuine and that these men had purchased them for U$10,000 each. In light of this information, we at “The Americas Report” decided to investigate whether this modus operandi could be used by people who pose a real threat to U.S. national security and what we found is alarming.

Our Staff has published articles about the presence of Hezbollah in Latin America, especially in Argentina, Venezuela and the Tri – border region (between Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil which intelligence officials usually refer to as “The Muslim Triangle meeting zone.”) We wrote a piece about the Iranian presence in Nicaragua, where they are planning to build a dry canal connecting both coasts. Iran also has a huge embassy in Managua where diplomats enjoy immunity and the full support of President Daniel Ortega.

Our team also wrote an article on Iran Air’s weekly flights between Tehran, Damascus and Caracas where only officials, high ranking intelligence operatives and military personnel from these countries are allowed to travel without needing visas, and where any type of material can be transported. We also published a story about how the Venezuelan government has already issued passports and official documents to members of Hezbollah and Hamas because President Chavez believes in their cause and is a strong supporter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

With this in mind, there is a real possibility that any of these individuals having access to stolen, doctored passports, and thus to U.S. visas could enter this country with the purpose of carrying out terrorist attacks. In fact, it has already happened: four of the nineteen hijackers from 9/11 carried passports that had been “manipulated in a fraudulent manner.” The Saudi documentation was genuine, and so were the U.S. visas. Investigators believe the hijackers obtained new passports after telling Saudi authorities they had “lost” their old ones, presumably to cover up trips to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Then, knowing that brand new passports would raise questions, the hijackers artificially aged them and forged entry and exit stamps. When asked, a veteran counterterrorism expert said that “without a microscopic forensic examination, a routine inspector wouldn’t have ascertained that the stamps weren’t valid.”[1]

It now seems that any person wanting to attack this country could use doctored or manipulated passports or could simply travel to Mexico and pay a Coyote to illegally cross the border.

For some time now, experts agree that South America has become a place of preference for terrorists that want to travel to the United States. A case in point is that in 2005, Mr. Minas Mirza of Warren, Michigan along with three others were charged with smuggling people into the U.S. through South America ever since 2001. In guilty pleas, they admitted helping dozens of Iraqis and Jordanians travel to the United States on European passports. In fact, these travel documents had been stolen and then doctored in Lima, Peru and purchased by Mirza there from a “broker.”

A 2007 NBC News investigation uncovered a black market for stolen passports in Latin America.[2] A reporter from this network disguised as a tourist was able to obtain entire new identities and official passports from Peru, Spain and Venezuela and travel throughout the hemisphere without ever raising suspicion.

The journalist had a hidden camera and was able to film “brokers” in the streets of Lima carrying bags full of stolen identities such as birth certificates, driver’s licenses and passports from a variety of countries such as Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, Canada, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Britain and Switzerland. European passports sell for much more money since its citizens don’t need visas to enter the United States.

These “brokers” usually charge $500 to $1,000 to forge the documents to the client’s preferences, promising “very high quality.” These “merchants” deal in the open and many have contacts inside some embassies, consulates and local government buildings who can easily obtain any official stamps or signatures needed in the process. It is worth noting that these people will do business with anyone: criminals, drug-dealers and even terrorists. It’s all about money for them. For an even higher price these “vendors” offer to hire “high – end coyotes” that will cross the border from Mexico taking good care of their clients.

These “brokers” offer a variety of “services.” The most common is the one used by people who look like the original passport holders. A more sophisticated scheme is using stolen passports, changing the original picture and meticulously replicating the special security features. An even more complex and expensive method is when an insider in a consulate steals blank official passports from the stock before names or pictures have been added and then sells them to illicit brokers who customize and sell them.

The “dealers” work in stages: first they meet with the potential client to assess their needs and discuss price details. A few days later, half of the money is paid in advance and then this same vendor brings the documents to the client to sign, and provides a fraudulent birth certificate. The only thing the buyer needs to provide in addition to the money is the passport picture, which can be taken nearby. The following week, they have a meeting in a public place where the broker “suggests” a flight itinerary for his client: he would travel with the Spanish passport to Bolivia, Argentina, Mexico and then to New Jersey to attain enough stamps in his new passport to enter the U.S. without raising suspicion. Together they make up a fake story to tell the authorities, if questioned, and come to the conclusion that the journalist in disguise would also need Peruvian documentation because the claim is that he has “double nationality.”

A few days later, the full amount is paid and both passports are delivered in person. To the surprise of the reporter, these passports are real and original. A local then explains that since the buyers usually want proof that they made a good deal, they promptly take the documentation to be verified with the broker at their side. Often, the documents are verified by corrupt officials from the RENIEC, the Peruvian agency in charge of issuing identity documents, who are associates of the “brokers.” Within a few days, the client obtains a real Peruvian identity document with the new name and photo. The dealer explains that it will take a couple of weeks for the issued name to appear in the official database. All is done in plain sight.

To prove his case, the undercover reporter traveled with the new documents to Chile, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela and was amazed to find out that his name was actually in the official Peruvian database. In Caracas, he contacted an “associate” of the “vendor” he met in Lima who also said he could provide a Venezuelan passport claiming it would be a better deal since nationals can travel without visas to Mexico, Spain, Germany and England. He “bought” the new passport and then flew to Mexico. Then he traveled to Tijuana where he is seen walking along the U.S./Mexican border without anyone asking him any questions. He did not try to enter the U.S. with the fake ID’s.

In the tapes, both the Peruvian and Venezuelan brokers can be seen insisting that with more time and money they could get a U.S. visa for their client providing him with a fake but official birth certificate, a passport, an identity document, a fraudulent bank account and a regular paycheck to be submitted to the United States embassy where he would then be granted an interview and then a visa. They claim to have done it before. The journalist refused to do this but had no doubt that the transaction would have been successful.

The bottom Line
It is just a matter of time, if it has not already happened, before a terrorist, is able to get to the United States using a stolen, doctored passport. However, without going to all that trouble, it is now possible to go to Mexico where there is a growing Muslim community and contact an illegal human smuggler and with his help cross the border in to the U.S.

As the threat of terrorism from the Western Hemisphere increases, which is likely because of the nexus between Venezuela, Iran, radical Islamic groups and the drug cartels, it becomes imperative for U.S. agencies responsible for protecting the American public to become more vigilant. It is also the responsibility of Latin American countries to be watchful for members of Al Qaeda or any other Middle Eastern terrorist network traveling throughout the region in order to reach the United States. Therefore the availability of official documentation for sale to the highest bidder is a serious problem and deserves serious attention.

*Nicole M. Ferrand is a research analyst and editor of "The Americas Report" of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project. She is a graduate of Columbia University in Economics and Political Science with a background in Law from Peruvian University, UNIFE and in Corporate Finance from Georgetown University.

[1] 9/11 Hijackers: The Passport Scam. February 9, 2004. Time Magazine.
[2] Information from an Investigative Report: “Enemies at the Gate.” NBC News. December 28, 2007. By Richard Greenberg, Adam Ciralsky, Stone Phillips.

Mexico and the US: A Growing Interdependence.

Mexico and the US: A Growing Interdependence.

By Nicole M. Ferrand.*

United States President-elect, Barack Obama, met this past Monday morning with Mexican President, Felipe Calderón, to discuss issues such as regional security, trade and immigration. The meeting took place at Mexico's Cultural Institute in Washington DC. The leaders reportedly discussed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico and the United States, border security and immigration.

There has been uneasiness on the part of the Mexican government in regard to the President – elect’s plans for Latin America. During his presidential campaign, Obama said he would renegotiate NAFTA in addition to obtaining more protections for U.S. workers, an issue that has long been on the agenda of American labor unions.

During their meeting, Mr. Obama said his administration will work to strengthen relations between the two nations and praised his Mexican counterpart for deploying troops to fight the drug cartels. In addition, the President–elect said he fully supported he ‘Merida Initiative’ (please see below) and that his administration “is going to be ready on day one” to work to build stronger relations with Mexico.

Following the meeting, spokesman Robert Gibbs said that Mr. Obama pledged to find ways to work with Mexico to reduce drug-related violence and to stop the flow of arms from the U.S. to Mexico. In addition the President-elect intends to upgrade NAFTA with stronger labor and environmental provisions. Obama also said he was committed to working with Congress to fix the “broken U.S. immigration system.”

In light of this visit an update is useful in understanding how the ongoing war the Mexican government is waging against the drug cartels has major significance for the national security of the United States.

To begin with, Mexico is the United States’ 3rd largest trading partner and is the 3rd largest supplier of oil to the U.S. Right now Mexico is facing an economic crisis and a surge in drug related crime that is spiraling out of control.

Since Felipe Calderón became President of Mexico on December 1st 2006, he has decisively waged a full blown war against the dangerous drug cartels. These cartels have ravaged the country for many years threatening to turn it into a narco-terrorist state. As soon as he took office, Mr. Calderón ordered the Mexican Army to deploy as many as 25,000 troops in nine states including Acapulco, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Ciudad Juarez, to combat the drug organizations since these Special Forces are much better equipped than the police. Mexican authorities estimate that the army will remain deployed until 2010.

Even though there have been major achievements on the security front, drug cartel-related killings rose by 117% to 5,376 in 2008 as compared to 2007, when there were 2,477 such slayings. To put this in perspective, more people have been killed in drug-related violence last year in Mexico than the United States has lost soldiers in five years of conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan.[1] This information can be discouraging; but to his credit, President Calderón seems determined to continue his pursuit to stop these criminals.

But as things become more difficult for the cartels due to the government’s successes, the narco-traffickers have become desperate and resorted to ever more violent measures in order to continue their operations. Criminals know this is when people start to get nervous and often pressure their leaders to broker a deal. However, Calderón says he will never engage in agreements with these groups. He knows they will push to the limit to instill fear in the public to pressure the administration to grant concessions and also because he understands deals with criminals and terrorists never work.

Many attribute the long history of high criminal activity in Mexico to the country’s soft legal system. There is no death penalty and the maximum prison term is 60 years, which is rarely imposed since judges usually sentence criminals to a maximum of 25 years. There are no jury trials and, although there is no presumption of innocence, only “probable” doubt has to be established.[2]

Previous administrations refused to extradite people since it was considered “cruel and unusual” punishment and worse if the defendant faced capital punishment. Under President Calderón things appear to be changing. In June, 2008 he signed a set of judicial reforms to improve national security. Now the government, because of continuing weaknesses in its judicial and prison systems, is using extradi­tion aggressively as a powerful weapon against the drug cartels. So far 160 criminals have been extradited to the U.S. to stand trial on drug-related charges, including Osiel Cárdenas Guillén, former head of the Gulf Cartel.

The rising crime rate and the gruesome findings of mutilated and beheaded bodies in plain sight have made people angry and scared at the same time. In response, the security situation in Mexico has become the top priority of President Calderón and drug related crime has become a matter of national security.

Drug Cartels
Violence has also escalated due to turf battles between the different groups for territory and control of trade routes. Here is a description of the major cartels operating in Mexico:
The Gulf cartel was the most powerful drug organization more than a year ago but thanks to the government’s efforts it has lost some power. Their paramilitary arm is “Los Zetas,” which now appears to be operating independently.
Los Zetas have become a major participant and operate under Heriberto “El Lazca” Lazcano. The found­ing members of the Zetas are believed to be a small group of police officers who deserted in the late 1990’s. This group uses sophisticated heavy weapons, high level communications, and intelligence collec­tion. They suffered a major backlash in April of 2008 when Daniel “El Cachetes” Perez Rojas, who commanded Zeta operations in Central America, was arrested in Guatemala. Just a few months later, Jaime “El Hummer” Gonzales Duran third in rank of Los Zetas was captured.
The Beltran Leyva family has had a long history in the narcotic business and not long ago it formed part of the Sinaloa federation which controlled the access to the U.S. border in Sonora State. But when Alberto Beltran Leyva was arrested in January 2008, the alliance ended since it was revealed that the arrest happened because of a Sinaloa betrayal. The Beltran Leyva cartel has become very powerful and there are reports that it is capable of smuggling drugs and even assassinating high-ranking government officials such as the killing in May of 2008 of the director of the federal police Edgar Millán Lopez. It is currently in war with the Sinaloa’s for control over Ciudad de Juarez, a major drug stronghold.
The Sinaloa cartel is currently the most capable group in Mexico and its drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman is the most wanted man in the country. They manage the drug trafficking from South America to the United States. Right now, the Sinaloa alliance and the Gulf cartel are violently fighting for control of some smuggling routes to the United States.
The Juarez Cartel also known as the Carrillo Fuentes organization operates in Ciudad de Juarez, north of Mexico, and is led by Vicente Carrillo Fuentes since 1997. They are in alliance with the Beltran Leyva organization.
The Tijuana Cartel also known as the Arellano Felix organization has been weakened in the last months due to the actions of the Mexican and US authorities especially after the capture of boss Eduardo “El Doctor” Arellano Felix in October 2008.

Government Successes
Thanks to the reforms in the judicial system and the deployment of the army to combat the narco-traffickers, the balance of power of the Mexican cartels has shifted and their leadership has been relentlessly pursued and diminished. Important leaders of the country’s drug-trafficking organizations have been arrested and extradited. In addition, there have been major seizures of illegal drugs and weapons. Just in July 2008, there was a raid of the largest amphetamine factory ever discovered where authorities seized 8,000 barrels of chemicals to produce this drug. As ‘meth’ has gained popularity in the United States, the Calderón administration has implemented measures to stop its usage and in January 2008, the sale of ephedrine and pseudo-ephedrine used to produce methamphetamine was banned.

The Mexican government has also implemented greater monitoring and control of airplanes entering the country and as a result, shipments of cocaine from Colombia decreased more than 90% and maritime drug trafficking has also decreased more than 60%.

As the cartels find it increasingly difficult to smuggle the same amount of drugs as before, many groups are now engaging in other criminal activities to supplement their income. These activities include; kidnappings, extortion, human trafficking and transporting illegal immigrants to the U.S.

Even as the Mexican government has achieved these successes, the violence in Mexico continues to be horrific and criminals are relentlessly attacking security forces and assassinating high ranking government officials. What has Mexicans baffled is the beheadings that are taking place in their country which shows a level of viciousness never seen before as local criminals are using the same methods used by Islamic militants to terrify people and discourage the police and the army from pursuing them.

In addition, human trafficking from Mexico to the United States poses an immense danger to this country since common criminals and even terrorists can enter U.S. territory paying just a couple thousand dollars to the infamous ‘coyotes.’

Centers of Operation
Ninety percent of the narcotics coming into the United States now transits through Mexico since the U.S. is still the primary destination for drugs produced in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. Most of the financing for the Mexican traffickers comes from American drug consumers. U.S. law enforcement officials estimate that between $15 to $25 billion from U.S. drug sales go back to the cartels each year in illegal cash and weapons.

But as the Mexican cartels face new obstacles from law enforcement, local drug lords are now positioning themselves more strongly in Central America as shipments via land have become their primary choice of drug distribution. In addition, Mexican groups are now operating directly in South America to satisfy demand there as well as transporting drugs directly to Europe. In essence, the Mexican criminal organizations have become the most powerful drug handlers in the entire Western Hemisphere. Not only that; they are the most feared arms dealers, illegal money launderers and human traffickers today.

The Merida Initiative
“The Americas Report” wrote an article on the “Merida Initiative” (see The Americas Report December 6, 2007 titled: ‘Merida Initiative NOT Plan Mexico’ by Nicole M. Ferrand) explaining that ‘critics of the initiative insist on calling the Merida Initiative “Plan Mexico” in allusion to Plan Colombia erroneously reporting that these two are the same. In reality it was never intended to be ‘Plan Mexico’ since it was conceived during conversations between Presidents Bush and Calderón in Merida, Mexico with the understanding that it was a broader security cooperation package involving the United States, Mexico and Central America. The initiative was announced on October 22, 2007 and signed into law on June 30, 2008.

The aim of this initiative is to combat drug trafficking, transnational crime and money laundering. United States assistance includes training, equipment and intelligence. The U.S. Congress authorized $1.6 billion for the three-year Merida program. On July 10, 2008 in order to silence critics that accused the Mexican government of committing abuses, Calderon announced plans to nearly double the size of its Federal Preventive Police force in order to reduce the role of the military in combating drug trafficking. The plan, known as the Comprehensive Strategy against Drug Trafficking, also involves purging police forces of corrupt officers.[3] In August 2008, Mexico announced that two states, Chihuahua and Nuevo León, were pioneering public trials, in which the state must prove its case. Before, the accused bore the burden of proof, and trials were secret. Mexico's president hopes this will bring transparency and accountability to the legal process. The government also wants to end a tradition of corruption, shady investigations, coerced testimony and an extremely low conviction rate.

In December 2008, the US released $197 million to Mexico. Most of this aid was destined to buy helicopters and other equipment to fight the drug cartels. As of this year, the US released another $99 million which was directed to buy aircraft and inspection equipment for the Mexican military. The US has released $300 million of the $400 million appropriated for Mexico for the first year (2008) for military and law enforcement training and equipment, as well as technical advice and training to strengthen the national justice systems. Only about $204 million of that, however, will be used by the military for the purchase of eight used transport helicopters and two small surveillance aircraft. No weapons are included in the plan.[4]

The bottom line
President Calderón correctly said after his meeting with Mr. Obama: “the more secure Mexico is, the more secure the U.S. will be” adding that both nations need to work together to fight organized crime “and combine the capabilities of our governments in order to preserve the security of our people on both sides of the border”.

*Nicole M. Ferrand is a research analyst and editor of “The Americas Report” of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC. (www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org). She is a graduate of Columbia University in Economics and Political Science with a background in Law from Peruvian University, UNIFE and in Corporate Finance from Georgetown University.

[1] As Mexico Reels from Violence, Views on Crime and Punishment Harden. December 10, 2008. New America Media.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Mexico Plan Adds Police To Take On Drug Cartels. July 11, 2008. The Washington Post.
[4] Bush pushes Mexico money in Iraq bill. May 8, 2008. Politico.

Getting it right about the Chavez – Iranian Connection.

Getting it right about the Chavez – Iranian Connection.

By Luis Fleischman.*

On December 21st, the Italian daily “La Stampa” published a story that seems to confirm something we at the Menges Hemispheric Security Project have been warning about for some time: the real meaning of the Chavez-Iranian alliance.

According to “La Stampa”, the regular flights between Caracas, Damascus and Tehran constitute a device for Venezuela to help Iran send Syria material for the manufacturing of missiles. That is part of an agreement of military cooperation signed between Syria and Iran in 2006. According to “La Stampa” the materials are destined for the “Revolutionary Guards”, the main force protecting the Iranian regime. In exchange for those materials Iran provided Venezuela with members of their revolutionary guards and their elite unit, “Al Quds”, to strengthen Venezuela’s secret services and police.

“La Stampa’s report is not surprising to those of us who have been involved in monitoring Hugo Chavez’s activities for the past several years.

In testimony before Congress on March 5, 2008, the Menges Hemispheric Security Project team pointed out that;

“Iran Air has weekly direct flights between Caracas, Damascus and Tehran. There are no large numbers of passengers that justify weekly travels between theses countries. Therefore, it is reasonable to speculate that these flights transport material which could be highly problematic. Nothing is evident but everything is possible. Even while the crisis in the Middle East continues it is crucial for American decision makers to think about strategies to contain the Iranian influence in our hemisphere as well as Hugo Chavez, himself”.

In the same testimony we said that the connection between Chavez, radical Islam and Iran may well be related to the mindset of the Venezuelan president to exercise a reign of terror, violence and totalitarian rule by using the oppressive methods of the Islamic Republic. We added that these radical groups could be used to develop Venezuela’s philosophy of asymmetric war in case of a US or other enemy attack on Venezuela. These tactics propose a style of fighting that is determined and suicidal, and considered to be useful in confronting a more powerful enemy, like the U.S. However, radical Islamist tactics might also serve to impose totalitarian rule first in Venezuela and then in other countries willing to join the Chavez coalition.

At the end of October 2008, the CSP Menges Hemispheric Security Project organized a briefing for Congressional staffers working on the Western Hemisphere. Among the many important topics discussed at the briefing was the issue of Iranian partnerships with dubious local businessmen in factories located in sensitive areas with access to strategic routes. One of the speakers at the conference talked about those partnerships as possibly including connections between drug trafficking networks that control sensitive strategic areas and Iran. In fact, Iran has established a financial and business infrastructure with Chavez’s consent and encouragement that now includes banks, gold mining, a cement plant, a tractor and bicycle factory, a tuna processing plant and a joint oil venture. This is all very interesting in light of an incident recently reported by several well known Turkish newspapers.[1]

They reported that on December 30th, twenty two containers were confiscated from an Iranian cargo ship bound for Venezuela. The ship was stopped by Turkish authorities in the port of Mersin near the Syrian border. Iranian authorities stated that the content of these containers were tractor parts bound for their factory in Venezuela’s Bolivar state. When the Turkish authorities inspected the shipment, they did not find tractor parts but components to build weapons, bombs and possibly some radioactive material (this material is still under investigation).

It is also known that Chavez has for some time provided Venezuelan territories and airports to drug traffickers, a fact often disregarded by State Department officials. Now, there are businesses that look like regular business and factories such as tuna and tractor factories that look like regular factories, all of them located in sensitive areas near the Orinoco River (an important connection between Colombia and Venezuela) in Venezuela with access to the Caribbean and to the Atlantic Ocean. These factories serve drug operations and involve partnerships with Iranian elements. As such they provide Iran with access to areas such as Panama and drug-trafficking routes that are most likely used to transport drugs overseas and to provide weapons to the FARC and other terrorists.

In addition, Iran signed an agreement with Venezuela and Nicaragua to jointly build a $350 million deep water port at Monkey Point, on the east coast of Nicaragua. This location is near Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba. Cuba, as we know, is not that far away from the U.S.-Texas-Mexican border, which is another bastion of wild drug-trafficking and now potential terrorism.

Other elements of cooperation between Venezuela and Iran involve operations between an Iranian bank inside Venezuela called el Banco Internacional de Desarollo and a Venezuelan affiliate as well as many other Venezuelan banks including BANESCO that also owns banks in Panama and Florida. This money could be helping Iran, drug traffickers and other dubious groups not only in its operations in Latin America but constitute a very good device to avoid the international sanctions Iran currently faces. In addition, it has been suggested by some analysts that the money Iran generates from its Venezuelan “businesses” is used to finance Hamas and Hezbollah.

Thus, the transport of weapons to Iran with the help of direct “commercial flights” from Venezuela is part of the assistance that Venezuela provides and which is motivated by cooperation between the two countries. As we have repeatedly said, this is not merely a marriage of convenience. It involves a strong ideological affinity. As Japan, Italy and Germany were natural allies during WWII; Chavez’s Venezuela is part of an axis with Iran which is joined by Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador. A case in point is Chavez’s recent expulsion of the Israeli Ambassador from Venezuela and his very strong endorsement of Hamas.

To conclude, the report published in “La Stampa” about the flights confirms evidence of a situation imagined beforehand. Such imagination is not the result of the wilderness of the mind but the outcome of systematically following the discourse, ideology and development of Chavez’s regime and behavior. Therefore all the evidence we have so far plus the knowledge gathered as a result of years of study and observation of the ways Chavez operates is enough to raise a red flag that US intelligence and security agencies cannot afford to disregard.

*Dr. Luis Fleischman is a senior advisor to the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington DC. He is also an adjunct professor of Political Science and Sociology at Wilkes Honor College at Florida Atlantic University.

[1] Turkey confiscates 22 containers en route from Iran to Venezuela. December 30, 2008. Gundem, Turkey.

Panamanian Election could mean another victory for Chavez.

Panamanian Election could mean another victory for Chavez.
By Nicholas Hanlon*

It is no secret that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is mobilizing politically and militarily to create an anti-U.S. climate in Latin America. Chavez has now turned his attention to the upcoming elections in Panama; a small but strategically placed country connecting Central and South America. Panama is vital to U. S. economic and military interests. As stated in the August 14th edition of the Americas Report, “the United States is the largest user of the Panama Canal and 15-20% of U.S. trade including 40% of grain exports and 670,000 barrels of oil a day come through the canal.”[i] At present, the favored winner of the Panamanian presidential elections in May, 2009 is Balbina Herrera of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). What we know of Herrera bodes poorly for the U.S. Her behavior, which bears a striking resemblance to that of Chavez, combined with past ties to Noriega, casts a potentially dark shadow on the future of the United States- Panamanian relationship.

Herrera represents the left wing of the PRD. She is clearly comfortable with dictatorial rule, remaining loyal to her party through two modern dictators; Omar Torrijos and Manuel Noriega. Herrera used to refer to herself as a “Torrejista de Verdad” or true Torrejista. Yet, she perhaps owes more of her political success to Manuel Noriega.[i] Noriega, himself, claims to have hidden in her house during the 1989 U.S. invasion. As a professional politician educated in Cuba, she has served as head of the National Assembly and as Housing Administrator in the current government of Martin Torrijos, the moderate son of the late dictator Omar Torrijos. As mayor of San Miguelito, during the Noriega years, she became known for threatening to kill protesters on sight using the catch phrase, “protesters seen, and protesters dead.”[ii]

The name “Manuel Noriega” conjures dark memories for most Panamanians. One of his political opponents was savagely tortured and beheaded. Noriega’s rule was characterized by violence, corruption, and poverty for those not in the military elite. Most Panamanians would rather forget him. Some might like to see him returned to stand trial for crimes against humanity. He has been tried and convicted in Panama for murder, embezzlement, and corruption in absentia. Political science professor, Miguel Antonio Bernal, believes that there are small pockets among Panama’s political elite who remain sympathetic, if not loyal, and who hope to learn something of Noriega’s fabled hidden fortunes. According to him, "If Noriega returns to Panama, it's certain the great number of 'Noriegists' that are in the government disguised as ministers, lawmakers, judges, and prosecutors will want to do everything possible to ensure that Noriega doesn't go to jail,".[iii] Whether Noriega returns to Panama or not, former friend, Balbina Herrera, has secured her parties nomination despite allegations that she has received money from Hugo Chavez for her campaign.

Like Hugo Chavez, Herrera won her parties’ primary by drawing an overwhelming number of votes from poor communities. She told Reuters that, "We are reaching levels of growth of 10 percent, but we need to generate wealth, as well as employment, so we can redistribute it."[iv] Chavez was able to consolidate and build power with the same promises long before he began to deliver results in the form of his now questionable poverty programs. Thus far, Herrera has distanced herself from Chavez and most likely will continue do so. Herrera wants to appear as a moderate towards the U.S. given the benefit of Panamanian/U.S. economic relations. Since she needs the support of Panama’s business class, she has vowed to choose a young businessman for her running mate. As a career politician, Herrera has never participated in the business community and must now create a semblance of economic credibility.

During the primary it was easy for Herrera’s camp to dismiss insinuations of a Chavez connection. It was obvious that her competition would try to tie her to Venezuela’s leader. Now, evidence of a money trail is emerging. Opponents of Chavez in Venezuela are reporting that Chavez is selling oil to Panamanian businessmen well below market price, who in turn, sell it in Panama for huge profits. These profits, in turn, have found their way to finance the Herrera campaign. The source of these reports, Mega TV, promises that more details are to come.[v] Those who write off concerns of Balbina Herrera’s Chavez like behavior should be reminded that the state of Panama’s democratic institutions are most likely not strong enough to withstand a leader determined to follow the Chavez model. USAID describes Panamanian democracy as follows;

“Panama's constitution grants strong executive powers to the central government, and gives considerable immunity to legislators, judges, and high-ranking executive branch officials. There are no clear or accessible points of entry for citizens or civil society organizations to influence decision making. Concepts of conflict of interest and transparency are virtually absent from political discourse and practices. Corruption is prevalent and public opinion surveys place corruption as a primary concern, second only to unemployment. In the meantime, press gag laws remain in effect while leadership of the judiciary reform movement falls to a nascent civil society.”[vi]

Though a multi-party system, executive power has only been shared among two parties since 1990. Power is brokered by political elites of which Herrera has been a part for the duration of Panama’s struggle for democracy. In a best case scenario, electoral realities might keep Herrera moderate and pragmatic for a time. Due to the popularity of her opponent for the presidency, Ricardo Martinelli, Herrera may be forced to forge some kind of alliance with him in order to win the election. Yet, Herrera has two major advantages. The PRD party membership makes up almost exactly 20% of the 3.3 million population. Further, the PRD holds 47 of 78 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Martinelli, of the Democratic Change party, rivals her in the polls but comes from a very small party with only 3 seats in the National Assembly. His differences with important potential allies in the Panamenista Party make an alliance unlikely. With 47 of 78 seats in the National Parliament, election cycle alliances will not hold much sway over a Herrera administration.

There are three issues of concern that tie Panama to U. S. national security. The first and most vital is the Panama Canal which is now under the control of the Chinese shipping company, Hutchinson Whampoa. With their close ties to the Chinese military, Hutchinson Whampoa has fifty year leases which give them control over both ends of the Canal. A strategic Chinese advantage at a global choke point is ominous and in times of conflict could put the U.S. at a serious military disadvantage. For example:

“Admiral Moore, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, claims that in case of military conflict in the Pacific, a large number of logistic ships need uninterrupted access to the canal to support deployed forces. If the use of the canal were denied, those ships would need to travel an extra 9,000 miles around South America and would not be able to sustain combat effectiveness in the Pacific. “It is not ‘managing traffic’ under normal circumstances with which I am concerned,” said Moore, “it is the ability of a potential enemy to disrupt traffic so as to block military supply, which in times of conflict is 80 to 90 percent dependent upon sea lift capability for there to be any sustained forward effort.”[vii]

The strategic importance of the Panama Canal is a clear indication of the seriousness of Panama’s coming May 3rd 2009 election. In the almost ten years that Hugo Chavez has been in power he has actively forged strong economic and military alliances with China, Russia and Iran. Even without the flamboyant anti-American rhetoric of Chavez, a Chavista-like leader in Panama could further strengthen the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in a region vital to our economic and military interests.

Secondly, Panama has become fertile ground for drug trafficking, money laundering and gang activity both on land and at sea and could potentially provide a haven for terrorist groups. If this doesn’t seem urgent, reconsider the implications of Chavez’s fast growing military and economic relationship with Iran. With Iranian ties comes the same terrorist trade craft and networks that Iran uses in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq to provide terrorists with training and equipment to wage war on Israel and on American soldiers. Now consider these executives of terror working together in a synergistic relationship with the FARC and a host of other associates that Chavez is financing throughout the hemisphere.

Finally, the Panamanian/U.S. economic relationship is significant and should be nurtured. According to current information:

“Between 2003 and 2007, U.S. exports of merchandise to Panama grew 102 percent from $1.8 billion in 2003 to $3.7 billion in 2007, outperforming overall U.S. merchandise export growth, which was 60 percent for the same period. The market access and trade disciplines provided by the Agreement offer an opportunity to further expand U.S. exports to a region that is already seeing high export growth rates. In 2007, U.S. - Panama total trade amounted to $4.1 billion with the United States registering a sizable trade surplus of $3.4 billion. U.S. exports in 2007 were $3.7 billion, up 38 percent from the previous year.”[viii]

U.S. business leaders with strong ties to Panama should be apprehensive about dealing with someone whose political rhetoric obligates her to fulfill anti-capitalist campaign promises. Furthermore, US/Panamanian relations have been strained by the delayed ratification of the bilateral Trade Promotion Agreement that President Bush negotiated with Panama which was signed last year. The agreement stands to greatly improve relations by encouraging greater transparency, accountability, property rights, and customs enforcement. While the possibility of ratification has been put off until the next U.S. administration, Panama, in the meantime, will likely strengthen ties with Canada, Mexico, and Guatemala.

Thus far, Herrera has been politically expedient in her quest to gain power. In order to ally fears, she has distanced herself from Chavez and Noriega. She is reassuring the business class with her promises of a business-friendly vice-presidential nominee while at the same time promising wealth redistribution to the poor. With all necessary parties satisfied, the way to the Presidency is opening. Yet, on what basis should we try to predict how Herrera will behave in office? Any politician is better judged by past behavior and ideological tendencies than campaign season rhetoric. The former betrays what a candidate truly wants. An ideological twin of Chavez and the political child of an aggressor like Noriega will not be friendly to free market principles or to the United States. Balbina Herrera will join Venezuela’s strategic alliance with China, Russia, and Iran against the United States while continuing to give lip service to the pro-business, U.S. friendly electorate in Panama.

*Nicholas Hanlon is an intern at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C. He is a graduate of Georgia State University and has a BA in Political Science with a concentration in International Affairs and a Minor in French.

[i] Panama-Guide.com, Balbina Herrera Wins PRD Primary - Now What? Don Winner, 09/08/08
[ii] Zimbio/www.panama-guide.com, Balbina Herrera Refuses To Pledge to Countermand Executive Decrees, Don Winner, 09/26/08
[iii] CNN.com/world, Panama braces for Noriega release Associated Press, 08/14/2007
[iv] www.boston.com, Early Panama election favorite has anti-U.S. past Andrew Beatty, 0527/2008
[v] tvn-2.com, Supuestos nexos de Balbina y Chávez nuevamente salen a relucir Jesus Morales, 10/17/2008

[vi] USAID Budget Panama 06/16/20005
[vii] The Americas Report China’s Control of the Panama Canal Revisited Yojiro Konno with Nancy Menges Vol. Nº 4 – Issue 33–August 14, 2008
[viii] www.export.gov expanded economic opportunities U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement

[i] The Americas Report China’s Control of the Panama Canal Revisited Yojiro Konno with Nancy Menges Vol. Nº 4 – Issue 33–August 14, 2008

The Upcoming Elections in Venezuela.

The Upcoming Elections in Venezuela.
By Nicole M. Ferrand.*

On November 23, 2008 regional elections will be held in Venezuela. Citizens will head to the polls to elect 22 governors, 328 mayors as well as 233 legislators to the state legislative councils and 13 councilors to district committees — including indigenous representation — totaling 603 positions. These will be the first elections to be held since President Hugo Chavez founded the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, PSUV in Spanish).

For a majority of Venezuelans these elections are an opportunity to put a stop to Chavez’s plans to stay in power and impose a socialist model in the country and they are encouraged by the polls which give the opposition the upper hand in many localities.

Although Chávez is not running, he is vociferously campaigning for the PSUV’s candidates. His public appearances have been marked by a violent and threatening rhetoric which has convinced voters that he is afraid of losing important positions to the opposition.

“Mobsters, mafia, thugs, shameless, crooks, traitors, imperial pawns, bandits, thugs, cowards, drug dealers or terrorists" are some of the epithets that Chávez has used to label opposition candidates throughout the electoral campaign. He has gone as far as publicly saying that if the opposition wins the upcoming elections, he will launch a “military plan” or “Plan Chávez” to be deployed in the states and municipalities in which his party has been defeated. “No one should forget that this is a peaceful revolution, yet it is one that bears arms.” “I beg you not to betray our people” and warned that only two options exist: “A socialist nation or death.”[1] For Chávez, the upcoming election is pivotal to secure his hold on power.

Why the Violent Speeches?
Many believe that the increasingly negative polls that give independents favorable results are troubling Hugo Chavez and are convinced that he is using the same strategy that has worked for him in the past: in order to win he needs to polarize voters. All along his ultimate goal has been to change the Constitution so that he can stay in power for life and to achieve this, the PSUV needs to score enough votes in November.

He has directly attacked candidates such as Pablo Pérez: “Now they want to put an imbecile in the governor’s office to do whatever he (current Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales) says,” and “I am speaking nothing but the truth; now he (Rosales) wants to have an imbecile as governor, an imbecile who cannot even speak properly.” In reference to the opposition candidate to the Mayor’s Office of the Sucre Municipality Carlos Ocariz, Chávez said: “Someone named Ocariz, who wants to be mayor of Petare, a rich boy. We are going to swat away those rich kids, born with a silver spoon in their mouths.”

The states at stake are Zulia, Miranda, Carabobo, Lara, Táchira, Anzoátegui, Bolivar and Aragua. Of these, all but Zulia are today in the hands of Chavismo and according to the polls, it is likely that more than half will fall into the oppositions’ hands. Of the 24 regional districts at stake, the Chavismo holds 22 and the opposition holds only Margarita and the wealthy state of Zulia.

According to the Electoral Commission which Chavez controls, he was reelected as President of Venezuela in 2006 with 63% of the vote. He has appealed to the poor through his populist measures funded by constantly increasing oil prices. At the time, he was on top of the world but since then he has lost many battles. In December, 2007, his wish to change the constitution and to stay in power was defeated in the referendum and according to the results, he will have to leave the Presidency in 2013. In addition the special powers he pursued to secure a socialist model were rejected by the voters.

He knows his popularity has suffered major setbacks in recent months and that this will be seen in the results of November 23rd. Among his least popular moves was the closing down of the RCTV television station, whose soap operas were a favorite among many nationals including Chavista voters. In addition, public services and utilities are collapsing and in recent months Venezuela has had three national blackouts which lasted several hours each. The health system has been increasingly criticized and major cities are literally under garbage. The fall in the price of oil and inflation reaching 40% as well as high crime rates are only making matters worse.

Internationally, he also suffered a loss of support. When the laptops of FARC leader, Raul Reyes, were seized in Ecuador, evidence surfaced that Chavez was a long time FARC supporter and had even financed their internal war, giving them sanctuary inside Venezuela, supplying them with weapons and actively working with them to undermine the government of Colombia. This information didn’t sit well with Venezuelans or with many in the international community.

All of the above plus his enormous expenditures on advanced weaponry have made people uneasy about having him as President and fear his totalitarian style and increased radicalization to the left. They know Venezuela and Chavez are considered pariahs by many democracies in the world and emphatically disagree with their president’s choice of new allies such as Iran and Russia since they have nothing in common. They want to follow a new path towards progress and Chavez is clearly taking them in the opposite direction.

Banning Candidates
On August 5, 2008, in an unprecedented move, the Supreme Court ruled that the 270 candidates that had been banned from running in November’s state and municipal elections were constitutional. The list of barred candidates was issued by Venezuela’s anti-corruption chief and Chavez’s ally, Clodosbaldo Russian. He said the law gave him the right to impose restrictions on potential candidates “suspected of corruption.” The opposition was and is still adamantly saying that the ban was unconstitutional because none of the potential candidates have been convicted of a crime, stating that the disqualification was politically motivated since it affected key opponents of the PSUV. Even the European Parliament condemned the government’s move as a violation of human rights.

In spite of this, the opposition has managed to unite and run single candidates in most districts and is likely to win in Zulia, Carabobo, and Miranda. If we add the Caracas metropolitan district, the opposition could obtain almost 40% of the vote.

Manuel Rosales
The focus of Chavez’s rage is the former presidential challenger, current Zulia State governor and now an opposition candidate for Mayor of Venezuela’s western city of Maracaibo, Manuel Rosales. Rosales has accused the regional police of engaging in a politically-motivated campaign of intimidation “because the central government in Caracas knows that it is about to lose on November 23.[2] The Chavez administration has threatened to either disqualify or jail him which would remove Mr. Rosales from the political scene. This would make it very difficult for the opposition to have a unified leader to fight the President’s intentions to change the Constitution. In addition when the Comptroller says that the governor of Zulia could be banned for fifteen years from running for office, it means that even if the “corruption” accusations have not been proven, authorities already have formed an opinion as to what the penalty will be.[3] Chavez knows that if Rosales does a good job as he did as governor, he may well challenge him in the next presidential elections.

[1] Chávez's War. November 7, 2008. El Universal, Venezuela.
[2] Chavez government campaign of intimidation seeks to link Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales with State Lottery fraud. October 22, 2008. P-R Inside.

[3] Chavez government campaign of intimidation seeks to link Zulia Governor Manuel Rosales with State Lottery fraud. October 22, 2008. P-R Inside.

“There is a campaign of intimidation, a putrefaction, a dirty war against us in Zulia.” Rosales has said. The authorities are trying to claim that in Zulia a fraud has been committed, but they are grasping allegations out of thin air by linking Manuel Rosales with the bandits and thieves they are, without shame, themselves,” declared Rosales who is being accused of allowing the permanent presence of paramilitaries and arms-traffickers in the State.[1]

When asked about the reasons Chavez feels threatened by him, Rosales responded: “Zulia, both strategically and politically, is the most important state in Venezuela ... it has the largest electoral base ... and they (Chavez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela-PSUV) want to win there taking advantage of the fact that I am stepping down from the governorship. They have lately discovered that Pablo Perez (the opposition candidate to replace Rosales) has a 16 to 20 point advantage in all the surveys. The other thing is that I also remain a candidate for Mayor of Maracaibo, which is, in electoral terms, extremely important, and we have a 42 to 45 point advantage there, too. He (Chavez) sure got angry when we denounced their eagerness to put the Sierra del Perija (the northernmost branch of the Andes, marking the Venezuelan border with Colombia) at the service of the Colombian FARC and, of course, we’ve been unwavering in our criticism of his personal militaristic projects taking place behind a facade of democracy.”[2]

It is clear that the Chavista camp is now worried. Although intimidation and consolidation of his authority has brought him results in the past, at this stage to show this nervousness just days before the elections, seems not to be a strategy but the result of desperation as polls show that the PSUV will lose ground and that Chavez will emerge weaker after November 23. He has even gone so far as to declare that he might send tanks onto the streets in the state of Carabobo if the opposition wins.

Chavez’s tactics are anything but democratic and no international agency, not even the Carter Center, should validate this election as free and fair because it clearly has not been and will not be. This is especially true if the results drastically differ from what the polls show which currently give the opposition a clear lead over the PSUV. It should surprise no one if Rosales is jailed or detained before the elections. November 23rd is an opportunity for Venezuelans to express their disapproval of Chavez and his ever more dictatorial actions. If he is not stopped now, it will become increasingly more difficult to stop him in the future.

*Nicole M. Ferrand is a research analyst and editor of “The Americas Report” of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington DC. (www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org). She is a graduate of Columbia University in Economics and Political Science with a background in Law from Peruvian University, UNIFE and in Corporate Finance from Georgetown University.

[1] Ibid.
[2] Ibid.